A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
